New State/Local Data for June/July 2009
New Population Estimates Show US Population Aging & More Ethnically Diverse
The U.S. Census Bureau released national population estimates showing that the US is becoming older and more racially and ethnically diverse. The estimates found that nearly half (47%) of the nation’s children younger than five were a minority in 2008, with 25% being Hispanic. For all children under 18 years of age, 44% were a minority and 22% were Hispanic.
The nation’s overall minority population on July 1, 2008, was 104.6 million, or 34% of the total population. Minorities, defined as any group other than single-race, non-Hispanic white, increased by 2.3% from 2007 to 2008. The largest and fastest-growing minority group was Hispanics, who reached 46.9 million in 2008, up by 3.2% from 2007. In 2008, nearly one in six U.S. residents was Hispanic.
The U.S. population is not only becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, it is also growing older: the median age reached 36.8 in 2008, up 1.5 years since 2000. There were 38.9 million people 65 and older in 2008, comprising 12.8% of the total population. Of this group, 5.7 million were 85 years old and older. In 2000, 12.4% of the total population was 65 and older. As the population ages, there are relatively more women than men. For those under age 18, 51.2% are male, but the percent declines to 42.4% for the population aged 65 and older, and decreases to just 32.6% for the population 85 and older. Women represent 50.7% of the total population. Estimates are also available by state and county.
New Data Show Relationship Between Education and Earnings
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that workers with a bachelor’s degree earned about $26,000 more on average than workers with a high school diploma, according to new figures that outline 2008 educational trends and achievement levels. Educational Attainment in the United States: 2008 is a series of tables containing data by characteristics such as age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, occupation, industry, nativity, citizenship status and period of entry. The tabulations also include historical data on mean earnings by educational attainment, sex, race and Hispanic origin. Data are from the Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic supplement.
The tables also show that in 2008, 29% of adults 25 and older had a bachelor’s degree, and 87% had completed high school. That compares with 24% of adults who had a bachelor’s degree, and 83% who had completed high school in 1998. In 2008, 29.4 million women and 28.4 million men 25 and older had a bachelor’s degree or higher. Women had a larger share of high school diplomas, as well as associate, bachelor’s and master’s degrees. More men than women had a professional or doctoral degree. Other highlights include:
- The race and Hispanic origin data show that 53% of Asians in the U.S. had a bachelor’s degree or higher degree of educational attainment. For non-Hispanic whites, it was 33%; for blacks; it was 20%; and for Hispanics, it was 13%.
- Among younger adults (age 25-29), 88% had completed high school, and 31% had completed college. Among adults 75 and over, 73% had completed high school and 17% had completed college.
State Graduation Report for Colorado
Diplomas Count 2009 contains the latest original analysis of high school completion conducted by the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center, which places the national graduation rate at 69.2% for the class of 2006 (compared to 72.7% for Colorado). The center calculates graduation rates for the nation, states, and every school district in the country
The analysis this year shows that from 1996 to 2006, the most recent year for which data are available, the national graduation rate for U.S. public high schools rose by 2.8 percentage points. That gain, averaging about three-tenths of a point annually, signals slow but steady progress over the past decade. In fact, for each of the past six years, the nation’s graduation rate has stayed consistently above the 1996 benchmark level of 66%. While long-term trends have generally been encouraging, the EPE Research Center found that the nation’s graduation rate dropped markedly—by almost a point and a half—between 2005 and 2006. That is the first significant annual decline found in more than a decade.
Education Week has released some new tools for assessing high school graduation rates across the country, including a mapping tool that depicts each year’s rate for each state from 1995 to 2006. The state report for Colorado may be purchased here.
Internet Use Triples in the Last Decade
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that 62% of households reported using Internet access in the home in 2007, an increase from 18% in 1997, the first year the bureau collected data on Internet use. Sixty-four percent of individuals 18 and over used the Internet from any location in 2007, while only 22% did so in 1997. Among households using the Internet in 2007, 82% reported using a high-speed connection, and 17% used a dial-up connection.
Among the states, Alaska and New Hampshire residents had among the highest rates of Internet use from any location (home, work or public access) for those 3 and older in 2007 (over 75%). Mississippi and West Virginia had among the lowest rates of Internet use at about 52%. Colorado’s Internet usage rate from any location was 67% (13th highest in the country).
Internet usage also varied by education. For individuals 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree, 87% reported going online from any location in 2007. For those with only some college, 74% reported using the Internet. About half (49%) of those with only a high school diploma reported using the Internet, compared with 19% for those without a high school diploma. Internet usage also varied by race and Hispanic origin; 69% of whites lived in households with Internet use, while the same was true for 51% of blacks, 73% of Asians and 48% of Hispanics. When looking at age groups, the percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds who accessed the Internet was more than double (73%) that of people 65 and older (35%). Among children 3 to 17, 56% used the Internet.
Factors Associated with School Meal Participation and the Relationship Between Different Participation Measures
This USDA ERS study investigated factors that influence students’ participation in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and School Breakfast Program (SBP). The analysis used recently collected data on a large, nationally representative sample of students certified for free and reduced-price meals during the 2005–2006 school year. Results show that, although eligible students are very likely to participate in the programs (i.e., pick up the meal offered that day), eligible elementary school students are more likely to participate than are middle or high school students. Likewise, students who like the taste of the meals are more likely to participate than are students who do not like the taste. In addition, if students now eligible for reduced-price lunches were instead given free lunches, they would participate more than they do now. The same was not strictly the case, however, for breakfast. Finally, the study suggests that analysts should use caution in relying on parents’ reports of a student’s participation to estimate yearly school meal participation. Parental reports of the previous day’s or previous week’s participation tend to overstate participation, which results in higher reported annual participation rates than is true according to administrative data.
Access to Affordable and Nutritious Food - Measuring and Understanding Food Deserts and Their Consequences
This USDA ERS report fills a request for a study of food deserts—areas with limited access to affordable and nutritious food—from the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008. The report summarizes findings of a national-level assessment of the extent and characteristics of food deserts, analysis of the consequences of food deserts, lessons learned from related Federal programs, and a discussion of policy options for alleviating the effects of food deserts. Overall, findings show that a small percentage of consumers are constrained in their ability to access affordable nutritious food because they live far from a supermarket or large grocery store and do not have easy access to transportation.
Variable Effects of Earnings Volatility on Food Stamp Participation
This USDA ERS study examines how earnings variability affects Food Stamp Program participation and how the effects differ depending on a household’s income position relative to the eligibility threshold. The study uses survey data from the Three-City Study, which is a longitudinal survey of low-income families with children living in Boston, Chicago, and San Antonio. The data in the Three-City Study have been linked to administrative case records on program participation. The study estimates longitudinal fixed-effect regression models of the times that households spend on food stamps and distinguishes between households that appear to be eligible or ineligible for food stamps based on longer-run income data. Temporary earnings increases and higher annual earnings variability reduce participation for households with low levels of permanent income. Higher annual earnings variability also reduces program participation for higher income households, but the effect is smaller in magnitude.
Mexican Data Say Migration to US Has Plummeted (link to article)
Census data from the Mexican government indicate an extraordinary decline in the number of Mexican immigrants going to the United States. The recently released data show that about 226,000 fewer people emigrated from Mexico to other countries during the year that ended in August 2008 than during the previous year, a decline of 25%. All but a very small fraction of emigration, both legal and illegal, from Mexico is to the United States.
Because of surging immigration, the Mexican-born population in the United States has grown steeply year after year since the early 1990s, dipping briefly only after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, census data in both countries show. Mexican and American researchers say that the current decline, which has also been manifested in a decrease in arrests along the border, is largely a result of Mexicans deciding to delay illegal crossings because of the lack of jobs in the ailing American economy. The net outflow of migrants from Mexico — those who left minus those who returned — fell by about half in the year that ended in August 2008 from the preceding year. The figures are based on detailed household interviews conducted quarterly by the census agency in Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography.
With so many Mexicans remaining in their home villages, the population of illegal immigrants in the United States stopped growing and might have slightly decreased in the last year, an abrupt shift after a decade of yearly influxes, research by demographers in the United States shows. Mexicans account for 32% of immigrants in the United States, and more than half of them lack legal status, the Pew center has reported. Still, at least 11 million illegal immigrants remain in the United States, the demographers say. Despite collapsing job markets in construction and other low-wage work, there has been no exodus among Mexicans living in the United States, the Mexican census figures show. About the same number of migrants — 450,000 — returned to Mexico in 2008 as in 2007.
Hispanic Children: The Rise of the Second Generation
The Pew Hispanic Center released a report finding that Hispanics now make up more than one-in-five of all children in the United States - up from 9% in 1980 -- and as their numbers have grown, their demographic profile has changed. More than half of the nation's 16 million Hispanic children are now "second generation," meaning they are the U.S.-born sons or daughters of at least one foreign-born parent, typically someone who came to this country in the immigration wave from Mexico, Central America and South America that began around 1980. In 1980, a majority of Latino children were "third or higher generation" -- the U.S.-born sons or daughters of U.S.-born parents.
A Pew Hispanic Center analysis of U.S. Census data indicates that many social, economic and demographic characteristics of Latino children vary by their generational status. First and second generation Latino children are less likely than third or higher generation children to be fluent in English and to have parents who completed high school. They are more likely to live in poverty. But they are less likely than third or higher generation Latino children to live in single parent households. Another characteristic that separates Latino children along generational lines is their legal status. Building on earlier research, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that fewer than one-in-ten of all Hispanic children are unauthorized immigrants. However, about one quarter have one or more parents who is an unauthorized immigrant.
Pew Hispanic Center population projections indicate that the generational composition of Hispanic children will change yet again between now and 2025. The share of Hispanic children who are second generation is projected to peak soon, while the share of Hispanic children who are third generation or higher will begin to rise in the coming decade.
Through Boom and Bust: Minorities, Immigrants and Homeownership
The Pew Hispanic Center released a report that analyzes trends in homeownership from 1995 to 2008; higher-priced lending to Hispanics and blacks in 2006 and 2007; and factors related to differences in foreclosure rates across the nation's 3,141 counties.
The study finds that minorities experienced the greatest gains in homeownership rates during the housing boom of 1995-2005, but blacks and native-born Hispanics have experienced the sharpest setbacks in recent years. Also, Hispanics and blacks remain far more likely than whites to borrow in the subprime market, pay higher rates on loans and carry higher debt relative to their incomes. Meantime, compared with the native born, immigrants have suffered a smaller decline in their homeownership rate during the housing slump.
The analysis of foreclosure rates in U.S. counties finds they are related to the share of immigrants in county populations. However, it cannot be concluded that immigration in and of itself is the cause of higher foreclosures. The condition of the local economy, house prices and higher priced lending to minorities are among other key factors related with county foreclosure rates.
Farm Business and Household Survey Data: Customized Data Summaries from ARMS
This data-delivery tool has been updated by USDA ERS with 2006 crop production practices data for soybeans. It also includes estimates of 2007 finances, structure, and characteristics of U.S. farm businesses and farm households. Use this interactive tool to create tailored reports on agricultural production technology, farm business and farm household viability, and the structure of U.S. agriculture from the latest ARMS data.
Federal Tax Policies and Farm Households
The USDA ERS reports that significant changes in Federal individual income and estate tax policies have occurred over the last 10 years. Analysis suggests that changes in Federal tax provisions affecting both individual and business income taxes have reduced average tax rates for all farm households, resulting in the lowest tax burden on farm income and investment in a decade. Similarly, an analysis of the changes to Federal estate tax policies suggests that increases in the value of property that can be transferred to the next generation free of the estate tax, combined with special provisions for farmers and other small businesses, have greatly reduced the number of farm estates subject to the tax and the amount owed. While nearly 10% of commercial farm estates could owe tax in 2009, only 1% to 2% of all farm estates are estimated to be subject to the Federal estate tax this year.
Beginning Farmers and Ranchers: Who Are They?
USDA currently defines a beginning farm as one operated by a farmer who has operated a farm or ranch for less than 10 years. Some beginning farms have more than one beginning farmer, and the 10-year requirement applies to all operators of the farm or ranch. Under this definition, 22% of U.S. farms were beginning farms in 2007. In the same period, there were over 750,000 farm operators with 10 years or less of experience, totaling 25% of all farm operators. Approximately a fifth of all farms have a principal operator who is a beginning farmer. Beginning farmers account for about 10% of the value of U.S. production, but their share of production varies significantly by agricultural commodity.
Other findings for 2007 include:
- More than 60% of established farmers were over age 55, compared with 32% of beginning farmers. Nationwide, only 5% of principal operators of established farms are under the age of 35, versus 17% of beginning farmers.
- Like all farm operators, most beginning farm operators are White, non-Hispanic men. Beginning farmers, however, are more likely to be female, non-White, or Hispanic than are established farmers.
- Many farms, particularly beginning farms, have no agricultural commodity production in a given year.
- On average, beginning farmers and their households earn less income from their farm, but have more off-farm income, than do more established operators and their households. The average income from both sources is similar for the two groups ($87,004 for beginning farmer households compared with $90,866 for established farmer households).
- On average, beginning farms are smaller than established farms—174 acres compared with 461 acres, and beginning farmers are less likely to participate in Government programs than established farmers, at least for commodity payment and conservation assistance programs (probably due to the fact that beginning farmers are more likely than established farmers to produce no agricultural commodities, and since some USDA programs are generally geared towards production, beginning farmers may not meet the eligibility requirements for such programs).
- Beginning farmers are less likely to operate rented land than are established farmers, and just as likely to own all of the land they operate. Beginning farmers, however, generally have less acreage and are more likely to carry debt on their land.
