New State/Local Data for April 2008
Geographic Distribution and Characteristics of Older Workers in Colorado: 2004
The Census Bureau's latest study on older workers in Colorado shows that this group's proportion of the state's labor force has increased. Changes in the size and composition of age groups may affect government program and policy choices and the options available to businesses. National projections indicate that the population 65 and older will increase from about 1 in 8 people to 1 in 5 people by 2030, so that older workers will likely comprise an increasingly larger proportion of each state's workforce. Whether, and in what industries, the large wave of workers born during the Baby Boom of 1946 to 1964 are currently working may influence their labor force behavior beyond traditional retirement ages. That is important information for firms planning for the eventual loss of experienced workers and the payout of pensions. In 2004, the Baby Boom cohort was aged 40 to 58. Statewide, 13.2 percent of workers were 55 and older. The five counties with the highest percentage of workers 55 and older were:
- Sedgwick: 22.3%
- Custer: 21.6%
- Gilpin: 21.0%
- Washington: 20.0%
- Yuma: 18.7%
Statewide, 2.9 percent of workers were 65 and older. The five counties with the highest percentage of workers 65 and older were:
- Logan: 5.6%
- Yuma: 5.4%
- Otero: 5.0%
- Las Animas: 4.8%
- Prowers: 4.5%
Statewide, among industry sectors that employed 100 or more workers 55 and older, Utilities (NAICS 22) had the highest proportion of workers in this age group. In metropolitan statistical areas of the state, the industry sector that employed the largest percentage of workers 55 and older was Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (NAICS 11), with 18.7 percent; the industry sector with the highest proportion of workers 65 and older was also Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (NAICS 11), with 7.8 percent.
In nonmetropolitan area workplaces in Colorado, the industry sector that employed the largest percentage of workers 55 and older was Utilities (NAICS 22), with 19.9 percent. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (NAICS 11) was the industry sector with the highest proportion of workers 65 and older, with 5.5 percent.
Metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area population estimates
New metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area population estimates are now available from the Census Bureau. Overall, the 50 fastest-growing metro areas were concentrated in two regions - 27 in the South and 20 in the West. New York was the most populous metro area on July 1, 2007, with 18.8 million people, followed by Los Angeles (12.9 million) and Chicago (9.5 million). Nine metro areas had 2007 populations of 5 million or more.
Areas covered in Colorado include: Denver-Aurora-Boulder, Boulder, Boulder County, Denver-Aurora, Adams County, Arapahoe County, Broomfield County, Clear Creek County, Denver County, Douglas County, Elbert County, Gilpin County, Jefferson County, Park County, Greeley, and Weld County.
National Reports with Local Relevance:
Center for Benefit-Cost Studies of Education
A new center at the Teachers College, Columbia University specializes in calculating and comparing the long- and short-term costs-and probable payoffs-of different educational strategies that promise to improve students' lives. Studies conducted by the center so far have examined the costs and benefits of preschool and dropout-prevention programs, the payoffs from state-specific investments in education in Minnesota and California, and the public savings that might result nationwide from strategies that bring the high school graduation rate for black males up to that of white males.
Although many other disciplines have long used cost-benefit analyses for research, such studies are undertaken less often in education. One reason the broader field of education has been slow to catch on is that such analyses require good studies on program effectiveness, and experts agree that such studies, while growing in number, are hard to find. The advent of the federal No Child Left Behind Act, which requires states to keep better track of students' academic progress, has also led states to build the large-scale databases that make cost-benefit analyses more doable.
For example, researchers analyzed evaluations of five educational "interventions" linked to improved high school graduation rates to gauge the full costs and the long-term cost savings they generated in such areas as incarceration and welfare expenses. Besides figuring the actual costs of those programs, they calculated how many additional graduates each one is expected to yield, the added expense of keeping students in high school two years longer, and any public subsidies for community college or other college costs that the additional graduates might receive. On the benefit side, they examined the added tax revenue each additional high school graduate is expected to generate and the public savings from lower health, crime, and welfare costs for high school graduates. They found that, even raising teacher salaries, an approach that falls in the middle range in cost, would generate public savings that are two to three times greater than the expense.
Hired Farmworkers A Major Input for Some U.S. Farm Sectors
As the total U.S. agricultural labor force has declined over the past century, hired farmworkers have become a larger proportion of all farmworkers and are especially important in the production of fruit, tree nuts, vegetables, and horticultural crops. Hired farmworkers earn lower incomes and face harsher working conditions compared with all other U.S. wage and salary workers. Because an estimated half of hired farmworkers lack legal status to work in the U.S., legislative reforms of immigration policies could have an impact on the sectors employing them.
The Power of Technological Innovation in Rural America
This presentation, by Jason Henderson of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, examines how innovations are influencing rural areas. He looks at the role of the Internet in facilitating monetary transactions and product flows, in creating new markets, and in developing and maintaining employment in rural areas. He also assesses new opportunities for rural economies, including value-added agriculture and natural resource-based recreation and tourism, as well as how to develop human capital to support future innovation and rural economic development.
Impact of 2002-2003 Farm Bill Restorations on Food Stamp Use by Legal Immigrants
This study used 1999-2004 Current Population Survey data in conjunction with the Urban Institute's Transfer Income Model (TRIM3) to quantify the impact of the 2002 Farm Bill's eligibility restorations. About half the estimated impact came from increases in newly eligible families, while the rest came from increases in eligible family members within already-eligible families (usually within families with citizen children). By 2004, the restorations had extended eligibility to roughly 1 million legal immigrants and 148,000 additional families. The extension in eligibility reached around two-thirds of those made ineligible by the 1996 welfare reform law rules and not covered by the 1998 restorations. The estimated participation gain over the period was 780,000 individuals and 139,000 legal immigrant families. The restorations took place in an era of large increases in food stamp caseloads overall; even so, the share of families containing legal immigrants increased substantially.
State Budget Update: 2008
With a few exceptions, state finances are deteriorating, in some cases considerably. This development has presented many state lawmakers with a twofold problem: keeping their fiscal year (FY) 2008 budgets in the black and enacting balanced budgets for FY 2009. Current state fiscal conditions are being driven by weak revenue performance. State officials expected revenue growth to slow in FY 2008, but not as dramatically as it has. Since the November 2007 edition of this report, revenue problems have grown and budget holes have deepened. Whether or not the national economy is in recession-a subject of ongoing debate-is almost beside the point for some states because their fiscal situations have declined so much that they appear to be in a recession.
Because most FY 2008 budgets were built on revenue forecasts that are not materializing as expected, budget gaps have grown. In November, seven states and Puerto Rico reported shortfalls. That number rose to 16 states and Puerto Rico by mid April. Collectively, these gaps totaled at least $11.7 billion. The situation is worse for FY 2009: Budget gaps have emerged in 23 states and Puerto Rico, and collectively they exceed $26 billion. Again, slowing or declining revenue is the principal reason. In fact, two-thirds of the states are concerned about FY 2009 revenue performance. Four states are pessimistic.
This survey includes a revenue outlook for next year and a description of the overall fiscal situation in each state. It is free to legislators and staff, but available for purchase by others at the NSCL bookstore.
